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A Chain Multinomial Model for Estimating the Real-Time Fatality Rate of a Disease, with an Application to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrom

Yip, Paul S F; Lau, Eric H Y; Lam, K F; Huggins, Richard


It is well known that statistics using cumulative data are insensitive to changes. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates of fatality rates are of the above type, which may not be able to reflect the latest changes in fatality due to treatment or government policy in a timely fashion. Here, the authors propose an estimate of a real-time fatality rate based on a chain multinomial model with a kernel function. It is more accurate than the WHO estimate in describing fatality, especially earlier...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2005
Type: Journal article
Source: American Journal of Epidemiology
DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwi088


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