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Multiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change

Galbraith, David; Levy, Peter; Sitch, Stephen; Huntingford, Chris; Cox, Peter M; Williams, Mathew; Meir, Patrick

Description

The large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO2) to simulated changes in Amazonian...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorGalbraith, David
dc.contributor.authorLevy, Peter
dc.contributor.authorSitch, Stephen
dc.contributor.authorHuntingford, Chris
dc.contributor.authorCox, Peter M
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Mathew
dc.contributor.authorMeir, Patrick
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T22:43:50Z
dc.identifier.issn0028-646X
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/79382
dc.description.abstractThe large-scale loss of Amazonian rainforest under some future climate scenarios has generally been considered to be driven by increased drying over Amazonia predicted by some general circulation models (GCMs). However, the importance of rainfall relative to other drivers has never been formally examined. Here, we conducted factorial simulations to ascertain the contributions of four environmental drivers (precipitation, temperature, humidity and CO2) to simulated changes in Amazonian vegetation carbon (Cveg), in three dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) forced with climate data based on HadCM3 for four SRES scenarios. Increased temperature was found to be more important than precipitation reduction in causing losses of Amazonian Cveg in two DGVMs (Hyland and TRIFFID), and as important as precipitation reduction in a third DGVM (LPJ). Increases in plant respiration, direct declines in photosynthesis and increases in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) all contributed to reduce Cveg under high temperature, but the contribution of each mechanism varied greatly across models. Rising CO2 mitigated much of the climate-driven biomass losses in the models. Additional work is required to constrain model behaviour with experimental data under conditions of high temperature and drought. Current models may be overly sensitive to long-term elevated temperatures as they do not account for physiological acclimation.
dc.publisherCambridge University Press
dc.sourceNew Phytologist
dc.subjectKeywords: carbon; rain; carbon dioxide; climate change; dieback; drought; fertilizer application; general circulation model; numerical model; photosynthesis; phytomass; rainfall; rainforest; respiration; article; biological model; biomass; Brazil; cell respiration; Amazon 'die-back'; Amazon drought; CO2 fertilization; Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs); Elevated temperatures; Photosynthesis; Plant respiration
dc.titleMultiple mechanisms of Amazonian forest biomass losses in three dynamic global vegetation models under climate change
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume187
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor060705 - Plant Physiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationf5625xPUB7835
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationGalbraith, David, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
local.contributor.affiliationLevy, Peter, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
local.contributor.affiliationSitch, Stephen, University of Leeds
local.contributor.affiliationHuntingford, Chris, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
local.contributor.affiliationCox, Peter M, University of Exeter
local.contributor.affiliationWilliams, Mathew, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
local.contributor.affiliationMeir, Patrick, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue3
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage647
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage665
local.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03350.x
local.identifier.absseo970106 - Expanding Knowledge in the Biological Sciences
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T09:37:41Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-77955150912
local.identifier.thomsonID000280122500011
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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