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Demographic theory: A long view

Caldwell, John


This essay argues that demographic theory over the last half-century has substituted short-term explanations, often focusing on single demographic events, for long-term theory. This means not only that the explanations cannot be employed to forecast the situation in the more distant future, but they are inadequate even for short-term analysis. A basis for a longer-term theory of fertility transition is proposed, employing the concept of social structure and demographic behavior adjusting,...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2004
Type: Journal article
Source: Population and Development Review
DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.014_1.x


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