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Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River virus transmission in Queensland, Australia

Hu, W; Williams, Gail; Tong, S; Mengersen, Kerrie; Clements, Archie

Description

This study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4%...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorHu, W
dc.contributor.authorWilliams, Gail
dc.contributor.authorTong, S
dc.contributor.authorMengersen, Kerrie
dc.contributor.authorClements, Archie
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-13T22:28:57Z
dc.identifier.issn0002-9637
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/74444
dc.description.abstractThis study aims to examine the impact of socio-ecologic factors on the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV) infection and to identify areas prone to social and ecologic-driven epidemics in Queensland, Australia. We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive model to quantify the relationship between monthly variation of RRV incidence and socio-ecologic factors and to determine spatiotemporal patterns. Our results show that the average increase in monthly RRV incidence was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.1-4.5%) and 2.0% (95% CrI: 1.6-2.3%) for a 1°C increase in monthly average maximum temperature and a 10 mm increase in monthly average rainfall, respectively. A significant spatiotemporal variation and interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on RRV incidence were found. No association between Socio-economic Index for Areas (SEIFA) and RRV was observed. The transmission of RRV in Queensland, Australia appeared to be primarily driven by ecologic variables rather than social factors.
dc.publisherAmerican Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.sourceAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.subjectKeywords: rain; article; Australia; Bayes theorem; human; humidity; morbidity; oscillation; Ross River alpha virus; sea level; seasonal variation; socioeconomics; temperature sensitivity; virus infection; virus transmission; weather; Australia; Bayes theorem; disea
dc.titleBayesian spatiotemporal analysis of socio-ecologic drivers of Ross River virus transmission in Queensland, Australia
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume83
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationU3488905xPUB4126
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationHu, W, The University of Queensland
local.contributor.affiliationClements, Archie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationWilliams, Gail, University of Queensland
local.contributor.affiliationTong, S, Queensland University of Technology
local.contributor.affiliationMengersen, Kerrie, Queensland University of Technology
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue3
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage722
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage728
local.identifier.doi10.4269/ajtmh.2010.09-0551
local.identifier.absseo920404 - Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response)
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T10:05:38Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-77957039744
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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