A general framework for Dynamic Emulation Modelling in environmental problems

Abstract

Emulation modelling is an effective way of overcoming the large computational burden associated with the process-based models traditionally adopted by the environmental modelling community. An emulator is a low-order, computationally efficient model identified from the original large model and then used to replace it for computationally intensive applications. As the number and forms of the problem that benefit from the identification and subsequent use of an emulator is very large, emulation modelling has emerged in different sectors of science, engineering and social science. For this reason, a variety of different strategies and techniques have been proposed in the last few years. The main aim of the paper is to provide an introduction to emulation modelling, together with a unified strategy for its application, so that modellers from different disciplines can better appreciate how it may be applied in their area of expertise. Particular emphasis is devoted to Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a methodological approach that preserves the dynamic nature of the original process-based model, with consequent advantages in a wide variety of problem areas. The different techniques and approaches to DEMo are considered in two macro categories: structure-based methods, where the mathematical structure of the original model is manipulated to a simpler, more computationally efficient form; and data-based approaches, where the emulator is identified and estimated from a data-set generated from planned experiments conducted on the large simulation model. The main contribution of the paper is a unified, six-step procedure that can be applied to most kinds of dynamic emulation problem.