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Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?

Fujiwara, Ippei; Ichiue, Hibiki; Nakazono, Yoshiyuki; Shigemi, Yosuke


This paper evaluates professional forecasters' behavior using a panel data of individual forecasts. We find that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, and (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: the forecasting behavior seems to be stubborn in the stock market, but jumpy in the bond market. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2013
Type: Journal article
Source: Economics Letters
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2012.12.037


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