A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties
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Roderick, Michael; Farquhar, Graham
Description
We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Roderick, Michael | |
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dc.contributor.author | Farquhar, Graham | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T23:36:13Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0043-1397 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/70053 | |
dc.description.abstract | We use the Budyko framework to calculate catchment-scale evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) as a function of two climatic factors, precipitation (P) and evaporative demand (Eo = 0.75 times the pan evaporation rate), and a third parameter that encodes the catchment properties (n) and modifies how P is partitioned between E and Q. This simple theory accurately predicted the long-term evapotranspiration (E) and runoff (Q) for the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in southeast Australia. We extend the theory by developing a simple and novel analytical expression for the effects on E and Q of small perturbations in P, Eo, and n. The theory predicts that a 10% change in P, with all else constant, would result in a 26% change in Q in the MDB. Future climate scenarios (2070-2099) derived using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 climate model output highlight the diversity of projections for P (30%) with a correspondingly large range in projections for Q (80%) in the MDB. We conclude with a qualitative description about the impact of changes in catchment properties on water availability and focus on the interaction between vegetation change, increasing atmospheric [CO2], and fire frequency. We conclude that the modern version of the Budyko framework is a useful tool for making simple and transparent estimates of changes in water availability. | |
dc.publisher | American Geophysical Union | |
dc.rights | Author/s retain copyright | |
dc.source | Water Resources Research | |
dc.subject | Keywords: Analytical expressions; Catchment properties; Climatic conditions; Climatic factors; Evaporative demands; Fire frequencies; Future climate; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Murray-Darling Basin; Pan evaporation; Small perturbations; Southeast a | |
dc.title | A simple framework for relating variations in runoff to variations in climatic conditions and catchment properties | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 47 | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 040608 - Surfacewater Hydrology | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | f2965xPUB2207 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Roderick, Michael, College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Farquhar, Graham, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 6 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | W00G07 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 11 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1029/2010WR009826 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 960399 - Climate and Climate Change not elsewhere classified | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T08:23:23Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-79959460583 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000292152400002 | |
dcterms.accessRights | Open Access | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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