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Modelling the spread of tuberculosis, including drug resistance and hiv: A case study in Papua New Guinea's western province

Thomas, Emma; Barrington, Hannah; Lokuge, Kamalini; Mercer, Geoffry

Description

High tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a serious public health concern. The epidemic in this region is exacerbated by the presence of drug-resistant TB strains as well as HIV infection. This presents a public health threat not only locally but also to Australia due to the high potential for cross-border transmission between PNG's Western Province and the Australian Torres Strait Islands. We present two mathematical models of TB in the Western Province: a simple model of...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorThomas, Emma
dc.contributor.authorBarrington, Hannah
dc.contributor.authorLokuge, Kamalini
dc.contributor.authorMercer, Geoffry
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:32:30Z
dc.identifier.issn1446-1811
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/68860
dc.description.abstractHigh tuberculosis (TB) prevalence in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a serious public health concern. The epidemic in this region is exacerbated by the presence of drug-resistant TB strains as well as HIV infection. This presents a public health threat not only locally but also to Australia due to the high potential for cross-border transmission between PNG's Western Province and the Australian Torres Strait Islands. We present two mathematical models of TB in the Western Province: a simple model of the underlying TB dynamics, and a detailed model which accounts for the additional effects of HIV and drug resistance. The detailed model is used to make quantitative predictions about the impact of expanding the TB case detection rate under the Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course treatment regimen. This paper provides a framework for future investigation into the economic costs and public health benefits of potential TB interventions in this region, with the eventual aim of providing recommendations to guide policy makers in both PNG and Australia.
dc.publisherAustralian Mathematical Society
dc.sourceAustralian and New Zealand Industrial and Applied Mathematics
dc.subjectKeywords: drug resistant; HIV; mathematical model; Papua New Guinea; tuberculosis
dc.titleModelling the spread of tuberculosis, including drug resistance and hiv: A case study in Papua New Guinea's western province
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume52
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor110309 - Infectious Diseases
local.identifier.ariespublicationf2965xPUB1850
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationThomas, Emma, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationBarrington, Hannah, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationLokuge, Kamalini, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMercer, Geoffry, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue1
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage26
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage45
local.identifier.doi10.1017/S1446181111000587
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T08:18:35Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79958859822
local.identifier.thomsonID000291051300003
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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