Skip navigation
Skip navigation

Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment

Claus, Edda

Description

This article constructs seven leading indexes of New Zealand employment and assesses their relative usefulness in terms of forecasting quarterly employment growth. Leading indexes have been widely used since their introduction in the late 1930s. One construction method dominated until academic research interest into alternative techniques re-appeared in the late 1980s. What has been missing so far in the literature is a thorough comparison of old and new techniques in terms of forecasting...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorClaus, Edda
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:24:41Z
dc.identifier.issn0013-0249
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/67301
dc.description.abstractThis article constructs seven leading indexes of New Zealand employment and assesses their relative usefulness in terms of forecasting quarterly employment growth. Leading indexes have been widely used since their introduction in the late 1930s. One construction method dominated until academic research interest into alternative techniques re-appeared in the late 1980s. What has been missing so far in the literature is a thorough comparison of old and new techniques in terms of forecasting performance. This article is a step in that direction. The methods covered here reflect varying degrees of technical sophistication, ranging from simple scoring of changes to relying on frequency domain methods to extract dynamic latent factors from a large dataset. The results show that no single index dominates in terms of forecasting employment growth one to four quarters ahead. This suggests that relying on a suite of models may be the optimal forecasting strategy.
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.sourceThe Economic Record
dc.subjectKeywords: employment; forecasting method; labor market; labor supply; New Zealand
dc.titleSeven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume87
dc.date.issued2011
local.identifier.absfor140212 - Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
local.identifier.ariespublicationf2965xPUB1433
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationClaus, Edda, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue276
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage76
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage89
local.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1475-4932.2010.00681.x
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T08:13:51Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79951754637
CollectionsANU Research Publications

Download

File Description SizeFormat Image
01_Claus_Seven_Leading_Indexes_of_New_2011.pdf392.93 kBAdobe PDF    Request a copy


Items in Open Research are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Updated:  19 May 2020/ Responsible Officer:  University Librarian/ Page Contact:  Library Systems & Web Coordinator