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A tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates

Gould, Susan F; Beeton, Nicholas J.; Harris, Rebecca M.B.; Hutchinson, Michael; Lechner, Alex M.; Porfirio, Luciana; Mackey, Brendan

Description

Tools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions. We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorGould, Susan F
dc.contributor.authorBeeton, Nicholas J.
dc.contributor.authorHarris, Rebecca M.B.
dc.contributor.authorHutchinson, Michael
dc.contributor.authorLechner, Alex M.
dc.contributor.authorPorfirio, Luciana
dc.contributor.authorMackey, Brendan
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:22:49Z
dc.identifier.issn2045-7758
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/66677
dc.description.abstractTools for exploring and communicating the impact of uncertainty on spatial prediction are urgently needed, particularly when projecting species distributions to future conditions. We provide a tool for simulating uncertainty, focusing on uncertainty due to data quality. We illustrate the use of the tool using a Tasmanian endemic species as a case study. Our simulations provide probabilistic, spatially explicit illustrations of the impact of uncertainty on model projections. We also illustrate differences in model projections using six different global climate models and two contrasting emissions scenarios. Our case study results illustrate how different sources of uncertainty have different impacts on model output and how the geographic distribution of uncertainty can vary. Synthesis and applications: We provide a conceptual framework for understanding sources of uncertainty based on a review of potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling; a tool for simulating uncertainty in species distribution models; and protocols for dealing with uncertainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios. Our tool provides a step forward in understanding and communicating the impacts of uncertainty on species distribution models under future climates which will be particularly helpful for informing discussions between researchers, policy makers, and conservation practitioners. We review potential sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling under future climates and provide a tool for simulating uncertainty in a spatially explicit way. We also outline protocols for dealing with uncertainty due to climate models and emissions scenarios.
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyright
dc.sourceEcology and Evolution
dc.titleA tool for simulating and communicating uncertainty when modelling species distributions under future climates
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume4
dc.date.issued2014
local.identifier.absfor050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
local.identifier.absfor050204 - Environmental Impact Assessment
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4279067xPUB1324
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationGould, Susan F, Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University
local.contributor.affiliationBeeton, Nicholas J., University of Tasmania
local.contributor.affiliationHarris, Rebecca M.B., Antartic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre
local.contributor.affiliationHutchinson, Michael, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationLechner, Alex M., University of Tasmania
local.contributor.affiliationPorfirio, Luciana, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMackey, Brendan, Griffith University
local.bibliographicCitation.issue24
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage4798
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage4811
local.identifier.doi10.1002/ece3.1319
local.identifier.absseo960307 - Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts)
local.identifier.absseo960805 - Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity at Regional or Larger Scales
dc.date.updated2015-12-10T10:34:46Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84919839007
local.identifier.thomsonID000346736200019
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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