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A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

Guillaume, Joseph; Qureshi, Muhammad; Jakeman, Anthony

Description

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorGuillaume, Joseph
dc.contributor.authorQureshi, Muhammad
dc.contributor.authorJakeman, Anthony
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:22:28Z
dc.identifier.issn1431-2174
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/66530
dc.description.abstractIntegrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.
dc.publisherVerlag-Heinz Heise, GmbH & Co KG
dc.sourceHydrogeology Journal
dc.subjectKeywords: bootstrapping; decision making; groundwater resource; numerical model; regression analysis; socioeconomic impact; time series analysis; uncertainty analysis; water management; Australia Australia; Groundwater-management; Socio-economic aspects; Uncertainty
dc.titleA structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume20
dc.date.issued2012
local.identifier.absfor140205 - Environment and Resource Economics
local.identifier.absfor140103 - Mathematical Economics
local.identifier.absfor140201 - Agricultural Economics
local.identifier.ariespublicationf5625xPUB1300
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationGuillaume, Joseph, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationQureshi, Muhammad, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationJakeman, Anthony , College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue5
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage915
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage932
local.identifier.doi10.1007/s10040-012-0864-0
local.identifier.absseo910299 - Microeconomics not elsewhere classified
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T08:44:01Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84865413233
local.identifier.thomsonID000307711800010
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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