A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules
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Guillaume, Joseph; Qureshi, Muhammad; Jakeman, Anthony
Description
Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Guillaume, Joseph | |
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dc.contributor.author | Qureshi, Muhammad | |
dc.contributor.author | Jakeman, Anthony | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T23:22:28Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1431-2174 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/66530 | |
dc.description.abstract | Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology. | |
dc.publisher | Verlag-Heinz Heise, GmbH & Co KG | |
dc.source | Hydrogeology Journal | |
dc.subject | Keywords: bootstrapping; decision making; groundwater resource; numerical model; regression analysis; socioeconomic impact; time series analysis; uncertainty analysis; water management; Australia Australia; Groundwater-management; Socio-economic aspects; Uncertainty | |
dc.title | A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 20 | |
dc.date.issued | 2012 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 140205 - Environment and Resource Economics | |
local.identifier.absfor | 140103 - Mathematical Economics | |
local.identifier.absfor | 140201 - Agricultural Economics | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | f5625xPUB1300 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Guillaume, Joseph, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Qureshi, Muhammad, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Jakeman, Anthony , College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.description.embargo | 2037-12-31 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 5 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 915 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 932 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s10040-012-0864-0 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 910299 - Microeconomics not elsewhere classified | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T08:44:01Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-84865413233 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000307711800010 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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