Are third world emigration forces abating?

Abstract

Most observers appear to believe that Third World emigration pressure is on the rise. But history suggests that migration typically follows a bell shape, in which case it might be entering on the downward phase. This paper estimates the economic and demographic fundamentals driving emigration from the developing world to the United States since 1970. The results suggest that emigration pressure, determined largely by source country demographics, education, poverty, and migrant stock dynamics, has recently been abating. Projections into the future suggest that it may even decline, and that its composition will become much more African and much less Hispanic.