Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise
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van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J.; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M.
Description
The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | van de Pol, Martijn | |
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dc.contributor.author | Vindenes, Yngvild | |
dc.contributor.author | Saether, Bernt-Erik | |
dc.contributor.author | Engen, Steinar | |
dc.contributor.author | Ens, Bruno J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Oosterbeek, Kees | |
dc.contributor.author | Tinbergen, Joost M. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T23:13:28Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0962-8452 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/64430 | |
dc.description.abstract | The relative importance of environmental colour for extinction risk compared with other aspects of environmental noise (mean and interannual variability) is poorly understood. Such knowledge is currently relevant, as climate change can cause the mean, variability and temporal autocorrelation of environmental variables to change. Here, we predict that the extinction risk of a shorebird population increases with the colour of a key environmental variable: winter temperature. However, the effect is weak compared with the impact of changes in the mean and interannual variability of temperature. Extinction risk was largely insensitive to noise colour, because demographic rates are poor in tracking the colour of the environment. We show that three mechanisms-which probably act in many species-can cause poor environmental tracking: (i) demographic rates that depend nonlinearly on environmental variables filter the noise colour, (ii) demographic rates typically depend on several environmental signals that do not change colour synchronously, and (iii) demographic stochasticity whitens the colour of demographic rates at low population size. We argue that the common practice of assuming perfect environmental tracking may result in overemphasizing the importance of noise colour for extinction risk. Consequently, ignoring environmental autocorrelation in population viability analysis could be less problematic than generally thought. | |
dc.publisher | Royal Society of London | |
dc.source | Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences | |
dc.subject | Keywords: autocorrelation; color; demography; environmental cue; environmental gradient; environmental modeling; extinction risk; noise; nonlinearity; population size; population viability analysis; synchrony; tracking; vulnerability; wader; animal; article; bird; Climatic variability; Demographic and environmental stochasticity; Noise filtering; Nonlinearity; Population viability analysis; Temporal autocorrelation | |
dc.title | Poor environmental tracking can make extinction risk insensitive to the colour of environmental noise | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | 278 | |
dc.date.issued | 2011 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | |
local.identifier.absfor | 060207 - Population Ecology | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u9511635xPUB936 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | van de Pol, Martijn, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Vindenes, Yngvild, Norwegian University of Science and Technology | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Saether, Bernt-Erik, Norwegian University of Science and Technology | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Engen, Steinar, Norwegian University of Science and Technology | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Ens, Bruno J., SOVON Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Oosterbeek, Kees, SOVON Dutch Centre for Field Ornithology | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Tinbergen, Joost M., University of Groningen | |
local.description.embargo | 2037-12-31 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 1725 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 3713 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 3722 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1098/rspb.2011.0487 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 960305 - Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | |
dc.date.updated | 2016-02-24T12:09:39Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-80855127448 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000296874600012 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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