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Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method

Wisniowski, Arkadiusz (Arek); Smith, Peter WF; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James; Forster, Jonathon J


In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information. To illustrate, we analyze time series data for the United Kingdom and forecast the...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2015
Type: Journal article
Source: Demography
DOI: 10.1007/s13524-015-0389-y


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