Future fertility in low fertility countries
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Altmetric Citations
Basten, Stuart; Sobotka, Tomáš; Zeman, Kryštof; Abbasi Shavazi, Mohammad; Adsera, Alicia; Van Bavel, Jan; Berghammer, Caroline; Choe, Minja Kim; Frejka, Tomas; Leridon, Henri; Mills, Melinda; Morgan, S. Philip; Rindfuss, Ronald; Rosero-Bixby, Louis; Rotkirch, Anna; Sanderson, Warren C.; Testa, Maria Rita; Thévenon, Olivier; Zhao, Zhongwei
Description
This chapter concerns countries with currently low fertility. It presents and justifies assumptions for future fertility trajectories based on an overview of recent fertility changes in major low-fertility regions, a discussion of theoretical arguments, a review of factors contributing to fertility change and variation during the late phases of demographic transition, a global survey of experts, and an invited meeting of experts. The survey contains 184 expert assessments with forecasts of...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Basten, Stuart | |
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dc.contributor.author | Sobotka, Tomáš | |
dc.contributor.author | Zeman, Kryštof | |
dc.contributor.author | Abbasi Shavazi, Mohammad | |
dc.contributor.author | Adsera, Alicia | |
dc.contributor.author | Van Bavel, Jan | |
dc.contributor.author | Berghammer, Caroline | |
dc.contributor.author | Choe, Minja Kim | |
dc.contributor.author | Frejka, Tomas | |
dc.contributor.author | Leridon, Henri | |
dc.contributor.author | Mills, Melinda | |
dc.contributor.author | Morgan, S. Philip | |
dc.contributor.author | Rindfuss, Ronald | |
dc.contributor.author | Rosero-Bixby, Louis | |
dc.contributor.author | Rotkirch, Anna | |
dc.contributor.author | Sanderson, Warren C. | |
dc.contributor.author | Testa, Maria Rita | |
dc.contributor.author | Thévenon, Olivier | |
dc.contributor.author | Zhao, Zhongwei | |
dc.contributor.editor | Wolfgang Lutz | |
dc.contributor.editor | William P. Butz | |
dc.contributor.editor | Samir KC | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T23:09:45Z | |
dc.identifier.isbn | 9780198703167 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/63431 | |
dc.description.abstract | This chapter concerns countries with currently low fertility. It presents and justifies assumptions for future fertility trajectories based on an overview of recent fertility changes in major low-fertility regions, a discussion of theoretical arguments, a review of factors contributing to fertility change and variation during the late phases of demographic transition, a global survey of experts, and an invited meeting of experts. The survey contains 184 expert assessments with forecasts of period total fertility rates in 2030 and 2050, and substantive assessments of the validity and potential impact on fertility of 46 possible fertility-influencing factors. Invited experts participating in a meeting in Vienna in December 2011 helped transform these survey results into the scenarios that informed the projections reported in this book. | |
dc.publisher | Oxford University Press | |
dc.relation.ispartof | World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century | |
dc.relation.isversionof | First Edition | |
dc.title | Future fertility in low fertility countries | |
dc.type | Book chapter | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
dc.date.issued | 2014 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 160302 - Fertility | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u9406909xPUB805 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Basten, Stuart, University of Oxford | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Sobotka, Tomáš, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Zeman, Kryštof, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Abbasi Shavazi, Mohammad, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Adsera, Alicia, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Van Bavel, Jan, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Berghammer, Caroline, Vienna Institute of Demography | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Choe, Minja Kim, East West Centre | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Frejka, Tomas, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Leridon, Henri, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Mills, Melinda, University of Groningen | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Morgan, S. Philip, Duke University | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Rindfuss, Ronald, East-West Center | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Rosero-Bixby, Louis, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Rotkirch, Anna, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Sanderson, Warren C., Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Testa, Maria Rita, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Thévenon, Olivier, Not known | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Zhao, Zhongwei, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU | |
local.description.embargo | 2037-12-31 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 39 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 146 | |
local.identifier.doi | /10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198703167.003.0003 | |
local.identifier.absseo | 970116 - Expanding Knowledge through Studies of Human Society | |
dc.date.updated | 2020-12-06T07:24:35Z | |
local.bibliographicCitation.placeofpublication | Oxford | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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File | Description | Size | Format | Image |
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01_Basten_Future_fertility_in_low_2014.pdf | 3.17 MB | Adobe PDF | Request a copy | |
02_Basten_Future_fertility_in_low_2014.pdf | 4.22 MB | Adobe PDF | Request a copy |
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