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Bayesian functional models for population forecasting

Shang, Han Lin; Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz; Bijak, Jakub; Smith, Peter WF; Raymer, James


We explore the functional modelling approach to population forecasting within the wider context of Bayesian predictions and model uncertainty. The functional modelling approach can be used to analyse and forecast many different age- and time-specific components for fertility, mortality and migration. For each of these demographic processes, we perform Bayesian model averaging across the outcomes of two functional models to take into account model uncertainty. We illustrate the method with a...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2014
Type: Book chapter
Book Title: Proceedings of the Sixth Eurostat/Unece Work Session on Demographic Projections


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