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Identifying the Critical Climatic Time Window That Affects Trait Expression

van de Pol, Martijn; Cockburn, Andrew

Description

Identifying the critical time window during which climatic drivers affect the expression of phenological, behavioral, and demographic traits is crucial for predicting the impact of climate change on trait and population dynamics. Two widely used associative methods exist to identify critical climatic periods: sliding-window models and recursive operators in which the memory of past weather fades over time. Both approaches have different strong points, which we combine here into a single method....[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorvan de Pol, Martijn
dc.contributor.authorCockburn, Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:07:36Z
dc.identifier.issn0003-0147
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/62951
dc.description.abstractIdentifying the critical time window during which climatic drivers affect the expression of phenological, behavioral, and demographic traits is crucial for predicting the impact of climate change on trait and population dynamics. Two widely used associative methods exist to identify critical climatic periods: sliding-window models and recursive operators in which the memory of past weather fades over time. Both approaches have different strong points, which we combine here into a single method. Our method uses flexible functions to differentially weight past weather, which can reflect competing hypotheses about time lags and the relative importance of recent and past weather for trait expression. Using a 22-year data set, we illustrate that the climatic window identified by our new method explains more of the phenological variation in a sexually selected trait than existing approaches. Our new method thus helps to better identify the critical time window and the causes of trait response to environmental variability.
dc.publisherUniversity of Chicago Press
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyright
dc.sourceThe American Naturalist
dc.subjectKeywords: behavioral ecology; climate change; climate variation; critical analysis; data set; demography; identification method; phenology; population dynamics; sexual selection; weather; animal; article; climate change; female; male; mate choice; molting; physiolo Climate change; Method; Phenology; Sliding window; Time-to-event models; Weather package
dc.titleIdentifying the Critical Climatic Time Window That Affects Trait Expression
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume177
dc.date.issued2011
local.identifier.absfor060306 - Evolutionary Impacts of Climate Change
local.identifier.absfor050101 - Ecological Impacts of Climate Change
local.identifier.ariespublicationu9511635xPUB753
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationvan de Pol, Martijn, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationCockburn, Andrew, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.bibliographicCitation.issue5
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage698
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage707
local.identifier.doi10.1086/659101
local.identifier.absseo960305 - Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T12:08:16Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79955447221
local.identifier.thomsonID000290151500015
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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