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Deterministic probability: neither chance nor credence

Lyon, Aidan

Description

Some have argued that chance and determinism are compatible in order to account for the objectivity of probabilities in theories that are compatible with determinism, like Classical Statistical Mechanics (CSM) and Evolutionary Theory (ET). Contrarily, some have argued that chance and determinism are incompatible, and so such probabilities are subjective. In this paper, I argue that both of these positions are unsatisfactory. I argue that the probabilities of theories like CSM and ET are not...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorLyon, Aidan
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:05:51Z
dc.date.available2015-12-10T23:05:51Z
dc.identifier.issn0039-7857
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/62537
dc.description.abstractSome have argued that chance and determinism are compatible in order to account for the objectivity of probabilities in theories that are compatible with determinism, like Classical Statistical Mechanics (CSM) and Evolutionary Theory (ET). Contrarily, some have argued that chance and determinism are incompatible, and so such probabilities are subjective. In this paper, I argue that both of these positions are unsatisfactory. I argue that the probabilities of theories like CSM and ET are not chances, but also that they are not subjective probabilities either. Rather, they are a third type of probability, which I call counterfactual probability. The main distinguishing feature of counterfactual-probability is the role it plays in conveying important counterfactual information in explanations. This distinguishes counterfactual probability from chance as a second concept of objective probability.
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.sourceSynthese
dc.subjectKeywords: Chance; Credence; Determinism; Objective probability; Probability concepts
dc.titleDeterministic probability: neither chance nor credence
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor010404 - Probability Theory
local.identifier.ariespublicationf2965xPUB709
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationLyon, Aidan, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage20
local.identifier.doi10.1007/s11229-010-9750-2
local.identifier.absseo970122 - Expanding Knowledge in Philosophy and Religious Studies
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T08:32:00Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-80052262325
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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