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Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

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Abel, Guy J.; Bijak, Jakub; Forster, Jonathon J.; Raymer, James; Smith, Peter W. F.; Wong, Jackie S. T.

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Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models

dc.contributor.authorAbel, Guy J.
dc.contributor.authorBijak, Jakub
dc.contributor.authorForster, Jonathon J.
dc.contributor.authorRaymer, James
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Peter W. F.
dc.contributor.authorWong, Jackie S. T.
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T23:04:27Z
dc.identifier.issn1435-9871
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/62380
dc.description.abstractBackground: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models
dc.publisherMax Planck Institute for Demographic Research
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyright
dc.sourceDemographic Research
dc.titleIntegrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume29
dc.date.issued2013
local.identifier.absfor160399 - Demography not elsewhere classified
local.identifier.absfor010406 - Stochastic Analysis and Modelling
local.identifier.absfor140305 - Time-Series Analysis
local.identifier.ariespublicationu9406909xPUB693
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationAbel, Guy J, Vienna Institute of Demography
local.contributor.affiliationBijak, Jakub, University of Southampton
local.contributor.affiliationForster, Jonathon J, University of Southampton
local.contributor.affiliationRaymer, James, College of Arts and Social Sciences, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationSmith, Peter WF, University of Southampton
local.contributor.affiliationWong, Jackie S.T., University of Southampton
local.bibliographicCitation.issue43
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1181
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage1226
local.identifier.doi10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43.
local.identifier.absseo910102 - Demography
dc.date.updated2015-12-10T08:45:16Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84920507077
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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