Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model
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Abel, Guy J.; Bijak, Jakub; Forster, Jonathon J.; Raymer, James; Smith, Peter W. F.; Wong, Jackie S. T.
Description
Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
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Date published: | 2013 |
Type: | Journal article |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/62380 |
Source: | Demographic Research |
DOI: | 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43. |
Access Rights: | Open Access |
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01_Abel_Integrating_uncertainty_in_2013.pdf | 3.3 MB | Adobe PDF |
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