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Integrating uncertainty in time series population forecasts: An illustration using a simple projection model

Abel, Guy J.; Bijak, Jakub; Forster, Jonathon J.; Raymer, James; Smith, Peter W. F.; Wong, Jackie S. T.


Background: Population forecasts are widely used for public policy purposes. Methods to quantify the uncertainty in forecasts tend to ignore model uncertainty and to be based on a single model. Objective: In this paper, we use Bayesian time series models

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2013
Type: Journal article
Source: Demographic Research
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2013.29.43.
Access Rights: Open Access


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