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Does specification matter? Experiments with simple multiregional probabilistic population projections

Raymer, James; Abel, Guy J.; Rogers, Andrei


Population projection models that introduce uncertainty are a growing subset of projection models in general. In this paper we focus on the importance of decisions made with regard to the model specifi cations adopted. We compare the forecasts and prediction intervals associated with four simple regional population projection models: an overall growth rate model, a component model with net migration, a component model with in-migration and out-migration rates, and a multiregional model with...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2012
Type: Journal article
Source: Environment and Planning A
DOI: 10.1068/a4533


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