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A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

Abel, Guy J; Bijak, Jakub; Raymer, James

Description

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2010
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/61848
Source: Population Trends

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