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The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals

Cardillo, Marcel; Mace, Georgina M; Gittleman, John L; Jones, Kate E.; Bielby, Jon; Purvis, A.

Description

Extinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorCardillo, Marcel
dc.contributor.authorMace, Georgina M
dc.contributor.authorGittleman, John L
dc.contributor.authorJones, Kate E.
dc.contributor.authorBielby, Jon
dc.contributor.authorPurvis, A.
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:59:38Z
dc.identifier.issn0962-8452
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/61180
dc.description.abstractExtinction risk varies among species, and comparative analyses can help clarify the causes of this variation. Here we present a phylogenetic comparative analysis of species-level extinction risk across nearly the whole of the class Mammalia. Our aims were to examine systematically the degree to which general predictors of extinction risk can be identified, and to investigate the relative importance of different types of predictors (life history, ecological, human impact and environmental) in determining extinction risk. A single global model explained 27.3% of variation in mammal extinction risk, but explanatory power was lower for region-specific models (median R2=0.248) and usually higher for taxon-specific models (median R2=0.383). Geographical range size, human population density and latitude were the most consistently significant predictors of extinction risk, but otherwise there was little evidence for general, prescriptive indicators of high extinction risk across mammals. Our results therefore support the view that comparative models of relatively narrow taxonomic scope are likely to be the most precise.
dc.publisherRoyal Society of London
dc.sourceProceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B: Biological Sciences
dc.subjectKeywords: anthropogenic effect; comparative study; environmental effect; extinction risk; mammal; phylogeny; population decline; population density; prediction; range size; Red List; taxonomy; article; comparative study; controlled study; deterioration; environment Phylogenetically independent contrasts; Red List; Supertree
dc.titleThe predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume275
dc.date.issued2008
local.identifier.absfor060309 - Phylogeny and Comparative Analysis
local.identifier.absfor060311 - Speciation and Extinction
local.identifier.ariespublicationu9511635xPUB592
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationCardillo, Marcel, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMace, Georgina M, Zoological Society of London
local.contributor.affiliationGittleman, John L, University of Virginia
local.contributor.affiliationJones, Kate E., Zoological Society of London
local.contributor.affiliationBielby, Jon, Imperial College London
local.contributor.affiliationPurvis, A., Imperial College London
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1441
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage1448
local.identifier.doi10.1098/rspb.2008.0179
dc.date.updated2015-12-10T08:14:46Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-43249104270
local.identifier.thomsonID000255503300012
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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