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Growth in densely populated Asia: Implications for primary product exporters

Anderson, Kym; Strutt , Anna

Description

Economic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource‐poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource‐abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorAnderson, Kym
dc.contributor.authorStrutt , Anna
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:57:07Z
dc.date.available2015-12-10T22:57:07Z
dc.date.created2014
dc.identifier.issn2050-2680
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/60521
dc.description.abstractEconomic growth and integration in Asia is rapidly increasing the global economic importance of the region. To the extent that this growth continues and is strongest in natural resource‐poor Asian economies, it will add to global demand for imports of primary products, to the benefit of (especially nearby) resource‐abundant countries. How will global production, consumption and trade patterns change by 2030 in the course of such economic developments and structural changes? We address this question using the GTAP model and Version 8.1 of the 2007 GTAP database, together with supplementary data from a range of sources, to support projections of the global economy from 2007 to 2030 under various scenarios. Factor endowments and real gross domestic product are assumed to grow at exogenous rates, and trade‐related policies are kept unchanged to generate a core baseline, which is compared with an alternative slower growth scenario. We also consider the impact of several policy changes aimed at increasing China's agricultural self‐sufficiency relative to the 2030 baseline. Policy implications for countries of the Asia‐Pacific region are drawn out in the final section.
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherWiley-Blackwell Publishing Asia
dc.sourceAsia & The Pacific Policy Studies
dc.titleGrowth in densely populated Asia: Implications for primary product exporters
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume1
dc.date.issued2014
local.identifier.absfor140210 - International Economics and International Finance
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4002919xPUB545
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationAnderson, Kym, College of Asia and the Pacific, The Australian National University
local.contributor.affiliationStrutt , Anna, University of Waikato
local.bibliographicCitation.issue1
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage112
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage136
local.identifier.doi10.1002/app5.14
local.identifier.absseo910211 - Supply and Demand
dc.date.updated2020-12-20T07:28:40Z
local.identifier.thomsonID000218526300008
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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