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Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

Shang, Han Lin; Booth, Heather; Hyndman, Rob


Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2011
Type: Journal article
Source: Demographic Research
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.5
Access Rights: Open Access


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