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Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James; Smithson, Michael; Newell, Ben

Description

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2014
Type: Journal article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1885/56232
Source: Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1083-6

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