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Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part I. Uncertainty and unabated emissions

Lewandowsky, Stephan; Risbey, James; Smithson, Michael; Newell, Ben; Hunter, John


Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often used to argue against mitigative action. This article presents an analysis of uncertainty in climate sensitivity that is robust to a range of assumptions. We show that increasing uncertainty is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, provided the function relating warming to damages is convex. This constraint is unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, it is unlikely to be...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2014
Type: Journal article
Source: Climatic Change
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1082-7


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