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Development and Testing of Canada-Wide Interpolated Spatial Models of Daily Minimum-Maximum Temperature and Precipitation for 1961-2003

Hutchinson, Michael; McKenney, Daniel; Lawrence, Kevin; Pedlar, John H; Hopkinson, Ron F.; Milewska, Ewa; Papadopol, Pia

Description

The application of trivariate thin-plate smoothing splines to the interpolation of daily weather data is investigated. The method was used to develop spatial models of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation for all of Canada, at a spatial resolution of 300 arc s of latitude and longitude, for the period 1961-2003. Each daily model was optimized automatically by minimizing the generalized cross validation. The fitted trivariate splines incorporated a spatially varying...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorHutchinson, Michael
dc.contributor.authorMcKenney, Daniel
dc.contributor.authorLawrence, Kevin
dc.contributor.authorPedlar, John H
dc.contributor.authorHopkinson, Ron F.
dc.contributor.authorMilewska, Ewa
dc.contributor.authorPapadopol, Pia
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:32:42Z
dc.identifier.issn1558-8424
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/55885
dc.description.abstractThe application of trivariate thin-plate smoothing splines to the interpolation of daily weather data is investigated. The method was used to develop spatial models of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation for all of Canada, at a spatial resolution of 300 arc s of latitude and longitude, for the period 1961-2003. Each daily model was optimized automatically by minimizing the generalized cross validation. The fitted trivariate splines incorporated a spatially varying dependence on ground elevation and were able to adapt automatically to the large variation in station density over Canada. Extensive quality control measures were performed on the source data. Error estimates for the fitted surfaces based on withheld data across southern Canada were comparable to, or smaller than, errors obtained by daily interpolation studies elsewhere with denser data networks. Mean absolute errors in daily maximum and minimum temperature averaged over all years were 1.1° and 1.6°C, respectively. Daily temperature extremes were also well matched. Daily precipitation is challenging because of short correlation length scales, the preponderance of zeros, and significant error associated with measurement of snow. A two-stage approach was adopted in which precipitation occurrence was estimated and then used in conjunction with a surface of positive precipitation values. Daily precipitation occurrence was correctly predicted 83% of the time. Withheld errors in daily precipitation were small, with mean absolute errors of 2.9 mm, although these were relatively large in percentage terms. However, mean percent absolute errors in seasonal and annual precipitation totals were 14% and 9%, respectively, and seasonal precipitation upper 95th percentiles were attenuated on average by 8%. Precipitation and daily maximum temperatures were most accurately interpolated in the autumn, consistent with the large well-organized synoptic systems that prevail in this season. Daily minimum temperatures were most accurately interpolated in summer. The withheld data tests indicate that the models can be used with confidence across southern Canada in applications that depend on daily temperature and accumulated seasonal and annual precipitation. They should be used with care in applications that depend critically on daily precipitation extremes.
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
dc.sourceJournal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
dc.subjectKeywords: Absolute error; Annual precipitation; Control measures; Daily temperatures; Data network; Error estimates; Generalized cross validation; Ground elevation; Maximum temperature; Mean absolute error; Precipitation extremes; Seasonal precipitations; Short-cor
dc.titleDevelopment and Testing of Canada-Wide Interpolated Spatial Models of Daily Minimum-Maximum Temperature and Precipitation for 1961-2003
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume48
dc.date.issued2009
local.identifier.absfor040100 - ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
local.identifier.absfor050200 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT
local.identifier.ariespublicationU4279067xPUB343
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationHutchinson, Michael, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMcKenney, Daniel, Canadian Forest Service
local.contributor.affiliationLawrence, Kevin, Canadian Forest Service
local.contributor.affiliationPedlar, John H, Canadian Forest Service
local.contributor.affiliationHopkinson, Ron F., Custom Climate Services
local.contributor.affiliationMilewska, Ewa, Environment Canada
local.contributor.affiliationPapadopol, Pia, Natural Resources Canada
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue4
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage725
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage741
local.identifier.doi10.1175/2008JAMC1979.1
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T10:50:19Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-67549122769
local.identifier.thomsonID000265893400003
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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