Trends in Stroke Survival Incidence Rates in Older Australians in the New Millennium and Forecasts into the Future
Download (768.13 kB)
-
Altmetric Citations
Fisher, Alex; Martin, Jodie; Srikusalanukul, Wichat; Davis, Michael W
Description
Aims The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. Methods Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i)...[Show more]
dc.contributor.author | Fisher, Alex | |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Martin, Jodie | |
dc.contributor.author | Srikusalanukul, Wichat | |
dc.contributor.author | Davis, Michael W | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2015-12-10T22:27:04Z | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1052-3057 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/1885/54037 | |
dc.description.abstract | Aims The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. Methods Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography. Results In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue. Conclusions Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men. | |
dc.publisher | W. B. Saunders Co., Ltd. | |
dc.source | Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases | |
dc.subject | Keywords: adult; aged; aging; article; Australia; cerebrovascular accident; controlled study; demography; female; human; incidence; major clinical study; male; middle aged; priority journal; society; standard; survival rate; survivor; trend study; very elderly Australia; incidence rates; projections; Stroke survivors; trends | |
dc.title | Trends in Stroke Survival Incidence Rates in Older Australians in the New Millennium and Forecasts into the Future | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
local.description.notes | Imported from ARIES | |
local.identifier.citationvolume | Epub ahead of print | |
dc.date.issued | 2013 | |
local.identifier.absfor | 111717 - Primary Health Care | |
local.identifier.absfor | 110308 - Geriatrics and Gerontology | |
local.identifier.ariespublication | u4971216xPUB289 | |
local.type.status | Published Version | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Fisher, Alex, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Martin, Jodie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Srikusalanukul, Wichat, Canberra Hospital | |
local.contributor.affiliation | Davis, Michael W, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU | |
local.description.embargo | 2037-12-31 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.issue | 4 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage | 1 | |
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage | 12 | |
local.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2013.06.035 | |
dc.date.updated | 2021-01-17T07:19:07Z | |
local.identifier.scopusID | 2-s2.0-84896678094 | |
local.identifier.thomsonID | 000333813700032 | |
Collections | ANU Research Publications |
Download
File | Description | Size | Format | Image |
---|---|---|---|---|
01_Fisher_Trends_in_Stroke_Survival_2013.pdf | 768.13 kB | Adobe PDF |
Items in Open Research are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Updated: 17 November 2022/ Responsible Officer: University Librarian/ Page Contact: Library Systems & Web Coordinator