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Trends in Stroke Survival Incidence Rates in Older Australians in the New Millennium and Forecasts into the Future

Fisher, Alex; Martin, Jodie; Srikusalanukul, Wichat; Davis, Michael W

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Aims The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. Methods Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i)...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorFisher, Alex
dc.contributor.authorMartin, Jodie
dc.contributor.authorSrikusalanukul, Wichat
dc.contributor.authorDavis, Michael W
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:27:04Z
dc.identifier.issn1052-3057
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/54037
dc.description.abstractAims The objective of this study is (i) to evaluate trends in the incidence rates of stroke survivors aged 60 years and older over a 11-year period in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) and (ii) to forecast future trends in Australia until 2051. Methods Analysis of age- and sex-specific standardized incidence rates of older first-ever stroke survivors in ACT from 1999-2000 to 2009-2010 and projections of number of stroke survivors (NSS) in 2021 and 2051 using 2 models based only on (i) demographic changes and (ii) assuming changing of both incidence rates and demography. Results In the ACT in the first decade of the 21st century, the absolute numbers and age-adjusted standardized incidence rates of stroke survivors (measured as a function of age and period) increased among both men and women aged 60 years or older. The trend toward increased survival rates in both sexes was driven mainly by population aging, whereas the effect of stroke year was more pronounced in men compared with women. The absolute NSS (and the financial burden to the society) in Australia is predicted to increase by 35.5%-59.3% in 2021 compared with 2011 and by 1.6- to 4.6-fold in 2051 if current only demographic (first number) or both demographic and incidence trends (second number) continue. Conclusions Our study demonstrates favorable trends in stroke survivor rates in Australia in the first decade of the new millennium and projects in the foreseeable future significant increases in the absolute numbers of older stroke survivors, especially among those aged 70 years or older and men.
dc.publisherW. B. Saunders Co., Ltd.
dc.sourceJournal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
dc.titleTrends in Stroke Survival Incidence Rates in Older Australians in the New Millennium and Forecasts into the Future
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolumeEpub ahead of print
dc.date.issued2013
local.identifier.absfor111717 - Primary Health Care
local.identifier.absfor110308 - Geriatrics and Gerontology
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4971216xPUB289
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationFisher, Alex, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationMartin, Jodie, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationSrikusalanukul, Wichat, Canberra Hospital
local.contributor.affiliationDavis, Michael W, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage12
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2013.06.035
dc.date.updated2015-12-09T09:37:42Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-84896678094
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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