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How ambitious are China and India's emissions intensity targets?

Stern, David; Jotzo, Frank

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Several developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India's commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40-45% and 20-25%, respectively, between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorStern, David
dc.contributor.authorJotzo, Frank
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:26:46Z
dc.identifier.issn0301-4215
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/53893
dc.description.abstractSeveral developing economies have announced carbon emissions targets for 2020 as part of the negotiating process for a post-Kyoto climate policy regime. China and India's commitments are framed as reductions in the emissions intensity of the economy by 40-45% and 20-25%, respectively, between 2005 and 2020. How feasible are the proposed reductions in emissions intensity for China and India, and how do they compare with the targeted reductions in the US and the EU? In this paper, we use a stochastic frontier model of energy intensity to decompose energy intensity into the effects of input and output mix, climate, and a residual technology variable. We use the model to produce emissions projections for China and India under a number of scenarios regarding the pace of technological change and changes in the share of non-fossil energy. We find that China is likely to need to adopt ambitious carbon mitigation policies in order to achieve its stated target, and that its targeted reductions in emissions intensity are on par with those implicit in the US and EU targets. India's target is less ambitious and might be met with only limited or even no dedicated mitigation policies.
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.sourceEnergy Policy
dc.subjectKeywords: Carbon emissions; Carbon mitigation; Climate policy; Developing economies; Emissions intensity; Energy intensity; Fossil energy; Input and outputs; Mitigation policies; Stochastic frontier models; Technological change; Technology variables; Climate models Carbon emissions; Climate change; Developing countries
dc.titleHow ambitious are China and India's emissions intensity targets?
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume38
dc.date.issued2010
local.identifier.absfor140205 - Environment and Resource Economics
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4002919xPUB286
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationStern, David, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationJotzo, Frank, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue11
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage6776
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage6783
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.049
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T10:22:19Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-77957817676
local.identifier.thomsonID000283561900041
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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