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Prediction of the probability of large fires in the Sydney region of south-eastern Australia using fire weather

Bradstock, Ross; Cohn, J S; Gill, A Malcom; Bedward, Michael; Lucas, C


The probability of large-fire (<1000 ha) ignition days, in the Sydney region, was examined using historical records. Relative influences of the ambient and drought components of the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) on large fire ignition probability were explored using Bayesian logistic regression. The preferred models for two areas (Blue Mountains and Central Coast) were composed of the sum of FFDI (Drought Factor, DF ≤ 1) (ambient component) and DF as predictors. Both drought and ambient...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2009
Type: Journal article
Source: International Journal of Wildland Fire
DOI: 10.1071/WF08133


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