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Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak

Mercer, Geoffry; Glass, Kathryn; Becker, Niels

Description

Reproduction numbers estimated from disease incidence data can give public health authorities valuable information about the progression and likely size of a disease outbreak. Here, we show that methods for estimating effective reproduction numbers commonly give overestimates early in an outbreak. This is due to many factors including the nature of outbreaks that are used for estimation, incorrectly accounting for imported cases and outbreaks arising in subpopulations with higher transmission...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorMercer, Geoffry
dc.contributor.authorGlass, Kathryn
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Niels
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T22:23:17Z
dc.identifier.issn0277-6715
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/52713
dc.description.abstractReproduction numbers estimated from disease incidence data can give public health authorities valuable information about the progression and likely size of a disease outbreak. Here, we show that methods for estimating effective reproduction numbers commonly give overestimates early in an outbreak. This is due to many factors including the nature of outbreaks that are used for estimation, incorrectly accounting for imported cases and outbreaks arising in subpopulations with higher transmission rates. Awareness of this bias is necessary to correctly interpret estimates from early disease outbreak data.
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc
dc.sourceStatistics in Medicine
dc.subjectKeywords: 2009 H1N1 influenza; article; awareness; calculation; controlled study; disease transmission; effective reproduction number; epidemic; epidemiological data; health survey; mathematical model; population size; probability; systematic error; Basic Reproduct Bias; Importation; Influenza; Reproduction number
dc.titleEffective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume30
dc.date.issued2011
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationu4468094xPUB253
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationMercer, Geoffry, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationGlass, Kathryn, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationBecker, Niels, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue9
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage984
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage997
local.identifier.doi10.1002/sim.4174
local.identifier.absseo970111 - Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T11:08:38Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-79953156903
local.identifier.thomsonID000289430200007
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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