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Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak

Mercer, Geoffry; Glass, Kathryn; Becker, Niels


Reproduction numbers estimated from disease incidence data can give public health authorities valuable information about the progression and likely size of a disease outbreak. Here, we show that methods for estimating effective reproduction numbers commonly give overestimates early in an outbreak. This is due to many factors including the nature of outbreaks that are used for estimation, incorrectly accounting for imported cases and outbreaks arising in subpopulations with higher transmission...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2011
Type: Journal article
Source: Statistics in Medicine
DOI: 10.1002/sim.4174


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