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Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

Paul, Christopher; Glenn, Russell; Grill, Beth; Mckernan, Megan P.; Raymond, Barbara; Stafford, Matt; Trujillo, Horacio R.


Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2008
Type: Journal article
Source: Studies in Conflict and Terrorism
DOI: 10.1080/10576100802400185


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