Stochastic Solvency Testing in Life Insurance

Abstract

... ¶ The purpose of this thesis is to develop a realistic solvency testing model in a form that can be implemented by Australian Life Insurers, in anticipation that the Australian insurance regulator, APRA, will ultimately follow the world trend and require stochastic solvency testing to be carried out in Australia. The model is constructed from three interconnected stochastic sub-models used to describe the economic environment and the mortality and lapsation experience of the portfolio of policies under consideration. Australian economic and Life Insurance data is used to fit a number of possible sub-models, such as generalised linear models, over-dispersion models and asset models, and the ``best'' model is selected in each case. The selected models are a modified CAS/SOA economic sub-model; either a Poisson or negative binomial (NB1) distribution (depending on the policy type considered) as the mortality sub-model; and a normal-Poisson lapsation sub-model. ¶ ...