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Global demographic change and economic performance applications of an augmented GTAP-dynamic

Shi, Qun; Tyers, Rod

Description

The fertility declines and increased longevity associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorShi, Qun
dc.contributor.authorTyers, Rod
dc.date.accessioned2005-05-30
dc.date.accessioned2006-03-27T02:14:30Z
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-05T08:30:36Z
dc.date.available2006-03-27T02:14:30Z
dc.date.available2011-01-05T08:30:36Z
dc.date.created2005
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/43186
dc.identifier.urihttp://digitalcollections.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/43186
dc.description.abstractThe fertility declines and increased longevity associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance.
dc.format.extent701677 bytes
dc.format.extent350 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/octet-stream
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.subjectfertility declines
dc.subjectglobal demographic change
dc.subjectincreased longevity
dc.subjectGTAP-dynamic model
dc.subjecteconomic performance
dc.titleGlobal demographic change and economic performance applications of an augmented GTAP-dynamic
dc.typeWorking/Technical Paper
local.description.refereedno
local.identifier.citationmonthapr
local.identifier.citationyear2005
local.identifier.eprintid3098
local.rights.ispublishedno
dc.date.issued2005
local.contributor.affiliationANU
local.contributor.affiliationFaculty of Economics and Commerce
local.citationseries in Economics and Econometrics no.450
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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