Global demographic change and economic performance applications of an augmented GTAP-dynamic

Abstract

The fertility declines and increased longevity associated with the final phase of the global demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance.