Skip navigation
Skip navigation

Does the world economy swing national elections?

Leigh, Andrew

Description

Do voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? According to rational voting models, electors should parse out the state of the world economy when deciding whether to re-elect their national leader. I test this theory using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, comparing the effect of world growth (“luck”) and national growth relative to world growth (“competence”). In...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorLeigh, Andrew
dc.date.accessioned2005-01-13
dc.date.accessioned2005-03-10
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-05T08:33:05Z
dc.date.available2005-03-10
dc.date.available2011-01-05T08:33:05Z
dc.date.created2004
dc.identifier.issn1442-8636
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/42672
dc.description.abstractDo voters reward national leaders who are more competent economic managers, or merely those who happen to be in power when the world economy booms? According to rational voting models, electors should parse out the state of the world economy when deciding whether to re-elect their national leader. I test this theory using data from 268 democratic elections held between 1978 and 1999, comparing the effect of world growth (“luck”) and national growth relative to world growth (“competence”). In the preferred specification, which allows for countries to have different degrees of global integration, an extra percentage point of world growth boosts incumbents’ chances of re-election by 9 percent, while an extra percentage point of national growth relative to world growth only boosts an incumbent’s chances of re-election by 4 percent. Voters are more likely to reward competence in countries that are richer and better educated. Controlling for income, higher rates of newspaper readership reduce the returns to luck, while higher rates of television viewing reduce the returns to competence.
dc.format.extent18 pages
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherCanberra, ACT: Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), The Australian National University
dc.relation.ispartofseriesDiscussion Paper (Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), The Australian National University): No. 485
dc.rightsAuthor/s retain copyright
dc.subjectelections
dc.subjectgrowth
dc.subjectmedia
dc.subjectrational voting
dc.titleDoes the world economy swing national elections?
dc.typeWorking/Technical Paper
local.description.refereedno
local.identifier.citationmonthdec
local.identifier.citationyear2004
local.identifier.eprintid2930
local.rights.ispublishedyes
local.identifier.absfor140299 - Applied Economics not elsewhere classified
local.identifier.ariespublicationu9807482xPUB48
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationCEPR, RSSS
local.contributor.affiliationANU
dc.date.updated2015-12-08T03:40:42Z
dcterms.accessRightsOpen Access
CollectionsANU Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Download

File Description SizeFormat Image
DP485.pdf209.72 kBAdobe PDFThumbnail


Items in Open Research are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.

Updated:  19 May 2020/ Responsible Officer:  University Librarian/ Page Contact:  Library Systems & Web Coordinator