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Global population forecast errors, economic performance and Australian export demand

Shi, Qun; Tyers, Rod


The analysis of global population forecasts of the past 30 years by the US National Academy of Sciences (Bongaarts and Bulatao, 2000) confirms that errors have been considerable and that population forecasts have generally been upward-biased. Recent stochastic population projections also yield wide error bounds. We adapt a standard global economic model to estimate the implications of global and regional population forecast errors for the performance of the global economy and the composition of...[Show more]

CollectionsANU Research Publications
Date published: 2004
Type: Working/Technical Paper


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