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Age-time interactions in mortality projection: applying Lee-Carter to Australia

Booth, Heather; Maindonald, J.H; Smith, Len

Description

Application of the Lee-Carter method to Australian data shows that model assumptions are not always met because of age-time interactions. The Lee-Carter method is adapted to take account of departures from linearity in the dominant time component and the failure to satisfy the assumption of an invariant age component. The most significant adaptation is a methodology for determining the ‘optimum’ fitting period in order to address non-linearity in the time component. In the Australian case,...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorBooth, Heather
dc.contributor.authorMaindonald, J.H
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Len
dc.date.accessioned2003-05-21
dc.date.accessioned2004-05-19T15:39:18Z
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-05T08:48:47Z
dc.date.available2004-05-19T15:39:18Z
dc.date.available2011-01-05T08:48:47Z
dc.date.created2001
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/41457
dc.identifier.urihttp://digitalcollections.anu.edu.au/handle/1885/41457
dc.description.abstractApplication of the Lee-Carter method to Australian data shows that model assumptions are not always met because of age-time interactions. The Lee-Carter method is adapted to take account of departures from linearity in the dominant time component and the failure to satisfy the assumption of an invariant age component. The most significant adaptation is a methodology for determining the ‘optimum’ fitting period in order to address non-linearity in the time component. In the Australian case, this has the additional effect that the assumption of an invariant age component is better met. Additional technical adaptations are also made. The model is expanded to take account of age-time interactions by incorporating the second and higher terms, but these are not easily incorporated into forecasts. The adapted methodology produces forecasts of life expectancy that are higher than official projections.
dc.format.extent375650 bytes
dc.format.extent347 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/octet-stream
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.subjectLee-Carter method
dc.subjectdemography
dc.subjectaging
dc.subjectage-time interactions
dc.subjectlife expectancy
dc.titleAge-time interactions in mortality projection: applying Lee-Carter to Australia
dc.typeWorking/Technical Paper
local.description.refereedno
local.identifier.citationmonthaug
local.identifier.citationyear2001
local.identifier.eprintid1328
local.rights.ispublishedyes
dc.date.issued2001
local.contributor.affiliationANU
local.contributor.affiliationDemography and Sociology Program, RSSS
local.citationWorking Papers in Demography no.85
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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