Reasons for the decline in mortality in Sri Lanka immediately after the Second World War: a re-examination of the evidence

Abstract

Newman estimated that 42 per cent of the decline in mortality in Sri Lanka between 1930-1945 and 1946-1960 was attributable to DDT-spraying; Molineaux estimated 27 per cent; Gray judged that 23 per cent of the decline between 1936-1945 and 1946-1960 was due to DDT. Here the Newman-Gray-Molineaux approach is criticized, the main point being that they ignored a significant improvement in mortality in the early 1940s, before DDT-spraying. Bearing this, and certain other complexities of the situation, in mind, an attempt is made to assess the impact of DDT on mortality.