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HIV prevalence and lifetime risk of dying of AIDS

Blacker, John; Zaba, Basia

Description

The paper examines the relationship between the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS and HIV prevalence, using a female stable population model in which the epidemic has stabilized. In addition to prevalence, lifetime risk is determined by various other factors, notably the level of mortality from causes other than AIDS, age at infection, and survival time between infection and death. Typically, the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS is between three and five times the HIV prevalence. Regression...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorBlacker, John
dc.contributor.authorZaba, Basia
dc.contributor.editorAwusabo-Asare, Kofi
dc.contributor.editorPisani, Elisabeth
dc.contributor.editorBoerma, J. Ties
dc.contributor.editorZaba, Basia
dc.date.accessioned2003-03-12
dc.date.accessioned2004-05-19T14:50:07Z
dc.date.accessioned2011-01-05T08:36:09Z
dc.date.available2004-05-19T14:50:07Z
dc.date.available2011-01-05T08:36:09Z
dc.date.created1997
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/41180
dc.description.abstractThe paper examines the relationship between the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS and HIV prevalence, using a female stable population model in which the epidemic has stabilized. In addition to prevalence, lifetime risk is determined by various other factors, notably the level of mortality from causes other than AIDS, age at infection, and survival time between infection and death. Typically, the lifetime risk of dying from AIDS is between three and five times the HIV prevalence. Regression equations are developed for estimating lifetime risk from the prevalence and other parameters. The methods are applied to data for Kenya, and it is shown that the 1995 prevalence estimate of 7.5 per cent for the population aged 15 and over would be equivalent to a lifetime risk of about 30 per cent.
dc.format.extent157364 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.language.isoen_AU
dc.publisherHealth Transition Centre, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, The Australian National University
dc.subjectKenya
dc.subjectHIV/AIDS
dc.subjectepidemiology
dc.subjectmortality
dc.subjectfertility
dc.subjectchild risk
dc.subjectadult risk
dc.titleHIV prevalence and lifetime risk of dying of AIDS
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.refereedno
local.identifier.citationnumbersupp.2
local.identifier.citationpages45-62
local.identifier.citationpublicationHealth Transition Review
local.identifier.citationvolume7
local.identifier.citationyear1997
local.identifier.eprintid940
local.rights.ispublishedyes
dc.date.issued1997
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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