Does a Critical Mass Exist? A Comparative Analysis of Women’s Legislative Representation, 1949-1997

Abstract

It has often been argued theoretically that a ‘critical mass,’ ranging from 10 to 35 percent women, is needed before major changes in legislative institutions, behavior, policy priorities, and policy voting occurs. This paper examines one of the less-explored dimensions of the critical mass concept is there a process by which women reaching a critical mass of the legislature accelerates the election of further women? Using data from the Inter-parliamentary Union and International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, we analyze this question for 17 industrialized democracies over a period of almost half a century, a longer period than any other relevant research. Descriptive results indicate that gains in women’s representation have been incremental rather than a critical mass accelerating the election of women to legislatures. In a multivariate analysis of the percentage of women in the lower house of the legislature, the critical mass is tested against established explanations of women’s gains in seats: institutional rules, egalitarian political culture, political parties, women’s educational achievements, and economic development. Of two measures of the critical mass theory, one has no impact, and the second results in only a small increase in women’s gains. Far from being clearly demonstrated, critical mass theories need empirical testing.