The transformation of Australia's population, 1970 to 2030 labour force, employment and unemployment

Abstract

This paper deals with transformations in the labour force, employment and, by construction, unemployment. We cover the past three decades and likely outcomes in decades following, exploring the historical profile of the labour force in the context of employment growth and likely future scenarios of both population and labour force participation rates. Following this we consider the methodology behind our projections of employment and unemployment, and illustrate differences between projections derived on the basis of alternative policy interventions. The implications of alternative employment growth scenarios are drawn for likely long term unemployment outcomes.