China in the middle of the East Asian Crisis : Export growth and the exchange rate

Abstract

In this short presentation, I will try to assess the external conditions facing China's export sector. The purpose of this analysis is to shed some light on the prospect for china's export growth in the short to medium run. What will happen to exports in the next year or so will largely determine the yuan exchange rate. We will focus on the economic fundamentals for the yuan exchange rate and its likley path in the near future.