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Effects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza

Wood, James; Zamani, Nasim; MacIntyre, C Raina; Becker, Niels

Description

We investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can strongly influence delay. The...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorWood, James
dc.contributor.authorZamani, Nasim
dc.contributor.authorMacIntyre, C Raina
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Niels
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-10T21:56:19Z
dc.identifier.issn1080-6040
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/39371
dc.description.abstractWe investigated the capacity of internal border control to limit influenza spread in an emergent pandemic in the context of Australia, a country with a low-population density and geopolitical boundaries that may facilitate restrictions. Mathematical models were used to study the time delay between epidemics in 2 population centers when travel restrictions were imposed. The models demonstrated that population size, travel rates, and places where travelers reside can strongly influence delay. The model simulations suggested that moderate delays in geographic spread may be possible with stringent restrictions and a low reproduction number, but results will be sensitive to the reproduction number and timing of restrictions. Model limitations include the absence of further importations and additional control measures. Internal border control may have a role in protecting domestic centers early in a pandemic, when importations are sparse. Our results may be useful for policymakers.
dc.publisherUS National Centre for Infectious Diseases
dc.sourceEmerging Infectious Diseases
dc.source.urihttp://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/7/pdfs/1038.pdf
dc.subjectKeywords: article; Australia; controlled study; emporiatrics; epidemic; geography; health care policy; home care; human; infection control; influenza; management; mathematical model; pandemic; population size; simulation; travel; Australia; Disease Outbreaks; Human
dc.titleEffects of Internal Border Control on Spread of Pandemic Influenza
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume13
dc.date.issued2007
local.identifier.absfor111706 - Epidemiology
local.identifier.ariespublicationu3962038xPUB176
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationWood, James, University of Sydney
local.contributor.affiliationZamani, Nasim, University of Sydney
local.contributor.affiliationMacIntyre, C Raina, Children's Hospital at Westmead
local.contributor.affiliationBecker, Niels, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue7
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage1038
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage1045
dc.date.updated2015-12-09T07:36:12Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-34447252657
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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