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The use of aggregate data to estimate gompertz-type old-age mortality in heterogeneous populations

Heathcote, Christopher R.; Puza, Borek; Roberts, Steven

Description

We consider two related aspects of the study of old-age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub-populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorHeathcote, Christopher R.
dc.contributor.authorPuza, Borek
dc.contributor.authorRoberts, Steven
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-08T22:29:47Z
dc.identifier.issn1369-1473
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/34220
dc.description.abstractWe consider two related aspects of the study of old-age mortality. One is the estimation of a parameterized hazard function from grouped data, and the other is its possible deceleration at extreme old age owing to heterogeneity described by a mixture of distinct sub-populations. The first is treated by half of a logistic transform, which is known to be free of discretization bias at older ages, and also preserves the increasing slope of the log hazard in the Gompertz case. It is assumed that data are available in the form published by official statistical agencies, that is, as aggregated frequencies in discrete time. Local polynomial modelling and weighted least squares are applied to cause-of-death mortality counts. The second, related, problem is to discover what conditions are necessary for population mortality to exhibit deceleration for a mixture of Gompertz sub-populations. The general problem remains open but, in the case of three groups, we demonstrate that heterogeneity may be such that it is possible for a population to show decelerating mortality and then return to a Gompertz-like increase at a later age. This implies that there are situations, depending on the extent of heterogeneity, in which there is at least one age interval in which the hazard function decreases before increasing again.
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltd
dc.sourceAustralian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics
dc.subjectKeywords: Deceleration; Gompertz; Heterogeneous populations; Mortality; Old age
dc.titleThe use of aggregate data to estimate gompertz-type old-age mortality in heterogeneous populations
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume51
dc.date.issued2009
local.identifier.absfor010402 - Biostatistics
local.identifier.ariespublicationu8902633xPUB110
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationHeathcote, Christopher R, College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationPuza, Borek, College of Business and Economics, ANU
local.contributor.affiliationRoberts, Steven, College of Business and Economics, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue4
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage481
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage497
local.identifier.doi10.1111/j.1467-842X.2009.00559.x
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T11:45:26Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-70450260469
local.identifier.thomsonID000272127700007
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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