Less than 20/20 vision. The impossibility of predicting complexity

Abstract

EVEN A PERFECT metaphor runs its course. For decades, 2020 has offered a convenient label for conferences and strategic plans alike – perfect sight about the way forward, a convenient end date for planning. In the 1990s, Craig Emerson, later a senior minister but then a public servant, ran an influential series of public events under the 2020 label, inviting prominent speakers to think aloud about policy problems before that far and distant year