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Optimal Groundwater management under Uncertainty: Resilience versus Economic Payoffs

Katic, Pamela; Grafton, Quentin

Description

This paper evaluates the trade-off between resilience and economic payoffs in terms of groundwater extraction where there is a risk of an irreversible and catastrophic event. A dynamic and spatial model is developed that incorporates a stochastic recharge process and the risk of an irreversible catastrophic event (such as saltwater intrusion) that arises when hydraulic heads fall below a given threshold. The results show that if the threshold is uncertain then controlling both the rate and...[Show more]

dc.contributor.authorKatic, Pamela
dc.contributor.authorGrafton, Quentin
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-07T22:51:11Z
dc.identifier.issn0022-1694
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/1885/27347
dc.description.abstractThis paper evaluates the trade-off between resilience and economic payoffs in terms of groundwater extraction where there is a risk of an irreversible and catastrophic event. A dynamic and spatial model is developed that incorporates a stochastic recharge process and the risk of an irreversible catastrophic event (such as saltwater intrusion) that arises when hydraulic heads fall below a given threshold. The results show that if the threshold is uncertain then controlling both the rate and depth of extraction can generate a higher economic return and a lower probability of crossing the threshold than only controlling the rate of extraction. This occurs even if the extraction rate is set optimally and is less than the extraction rate than when two forms of control are used. The model and findings provide an applied framework to understand and to quantify where there might be 'win-win' outcomes, and trade-offs between economic payoffs and resilience in terms of groundwater extraction.
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.sourceJournal of Hydrology
dc.subjectKeywords: Catastrophic event; Economic returns; Extraction rate; Groundwater extraction; Hydraulic heads; Irreversible thresholds; Lower probabilities; Recharge process; Resilience; Spatial models; Uncertainty; Win-win; Economic and social effects; Salt water intru Groundwater; Irreversible thresholds; Resilience; Uncertainty
dc.titleOptimal Groundwater management under Uncertainty: Resilience versus Economic Payoffs
dc.typeJournal article
local.description.notesImported from ARIES
local.identifier.citationvolume406
dc.date.issued2011
local.identifier.absfor140205 - Environment and Resource Economics
local.identifier.ariespublicationu5141460xPUB50
local.type.statusPublished Version
local.contributor.affiliationKatic, Pamela, International Water Management Institute
local.contributor.affiliationGrafton, R Quentin, College of Asia and the Pacific, ANU
local.description.embargo2037-12-31
local.bibliographicCitation.issue3-4
local.bibliographicCitation.startpage215
local.bibliographicCitation.lastpage224
local.identifier.doi10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.06.016
local.identifier.absseo970114 - Expanding Knowledge in Economics
dc.date.updated2016-02-24T11:34:54Z
local.identifier.scopusID2-s2.0-80051600622
local.identifier.thomsonID000295068000009
CollectionsANU Research Publications

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