Forecasting fertility by age and birth order using time series from the Human Fertility Database
This article presents a comparison of two approaches in forecasting total fertility, age specific fertility, and birth order age specific fertility rates. We employ an auto-arima and a functional time series robust forecasting model to project fertility for 23 countries using the Human Fertility Database time series. The comparison of the two models aim at demonstrating the advantages of forecasting both age specific rates as opposed to the common practice of simply forecasting total...[Show more]
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